Stock Story: ASML
October 2022
Lithography is the process by which powerful, fast and cheap microchips are made. Advances in how lithography systems imprint electronic circuitry patterns on silicon wafers govern enhancements in microchips and memory.
In more detail, a lithography system is essentially a manufacturing machine whereby light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern to be printed. The system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer (whereby a wafer is covered with chemicals that react with light). A series of other non-lithography steps are also carried out. To make a microchip, the process is repeated layer upon layer to create the components of the chip including the transistors, which are miniaturised semiconductor devices. The most advanced chips have up to 150 layers. So advanced is lithography, the latest chips are printed at a scale of nanometres, where a nanometre is one billionth of a metre. The A16 processor in the iPhone 14 will contain about 16 billion transistors.
Lithography is so key to making the best microchips, the US stops the company that makes the most advanced of these manufacturing systems from selling its product to China.
That company is ASML. The Netherlands-based group sold 309 lithography systems on the way to earning revenue of 18.6 billion euros in fiscal 2021. The most advanced ASML lithography system today costs about 160 million euros.
ASML, which formed as a venture between Philips and ASMI of the Netherlands in 1984 and listed in 1995, extended its industry leadership in lithography with its development of ‘extreme ultraviolet’ lithography, which is an advance on its ‘deep ultraviolet’ lithography system. This system is regarded as the best system for reliably printing transistors on wafers at high volume using a light wavelength of just 13.5 nanometres.
ASML’s customers are microchip manufacturers such as TSMC of Taiwan, Intel, Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix of Korea. All semiconductor producers rely on ASML’s equipment to produce the most advanced chips. From an investor’s point of view, ASML’s technology leadership is its core competitive advantage that has given it an 83% stranglehold on one of the world’s most crucial industrial systems. Nikon of Japan is ASML’s nearest, even a distant, competitor.
Couldn’t Nikon or another company invent a lithography system that betters that of ASML? Such questions have always existed but competitors have only fallen further behind over time. ASML’s advantage is not in any singular aspect of the lithography system but across the many complex technologies, including the light source, optics, wafer stage, software, and process control, that need to come together in perfect unison. All of this would take incredible effort to replicate.
ASML has also set up a sophisticated production network underwritten by exclusive agreements whereby it outsources the making of components to about 4,000 companies around the globe. Many of the parts are complex. The mirrors in ASML’s lithography machines, for instance, are the smoothest structures produced on earth. In fact, they are so flat, if someone expanded a mirror to the size of Victoria, the highest mountain would be 1 millimetre tall.
No rival, even if possessing a better design for a lithography system, could quickly or easily build a similar global manufacturing network. The biggest semiconductor manufacturers in the world have a vested interest in ASML’s commercial success.
At the very least, it seems ASML is poised to hold onto its market dominance for the foreseeable future; in recent years, the company has widened its lead over competitors as it achieved double-digit sales growth. The stock is found in the Magellan global portfolio because ASML has the potential to generate excess returns on capital for the foreseeable future.
Even the best-placed companies, however, face challenges. Among threats to ASML, the shrinking of transistors could reach its physical limits in terms of tininess and finesse. If so, it would buy time for rivals to one day catch up to ASML’s lithography standards. But somehow microchip-related technology keeps advancing. Another threat is the Chinese government. Beijing understands the strategic worth of microchips and is investing billions of dollars to catch up with the West and is willing to ignore patents to do so. ASML warned in February that an affiliate of a Chinese company it had accused of stealing its trade secrets is marketing products that could infringe on its intellectual property rights. Hence Washington is keen to keep ASML’s lithography systems out of China.
ASML, however, has a record of delivering ever-improving lithography machines on time to its customers. If the company keeps doing that, investors will be looked after too.
Sources: ASML Annual Report 2021, company filings, Bloomberg and Dunn & Bradstreet.
Important Information: This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice of any kind and you should not construe the contents of this material as legal, tax, investment or other advice. In making an investment decision, you should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and must rely on your own examination of the same and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision.
The investment program of the strategy or strategies presented herein (‘Strategy’) is speculative and may involve a high degree of risk. The Strategy is not intended as a complete investment program and is suitable only for sophisticated investors who can bear the risk of loss. The Strategy may lack diversification, which can increase the risk of loss to investors. The Strategy’s performance may be volatile. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of the Strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs and such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. This material may contain ‘forward-looking statements’. Actual events or results or the actual performance of the Strategy or any financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. The Strategy will have limited liquidity, no secondary market for interests in the Strategy is expected to develop and there are restrictions on an investor’s ability to withdraw and transfer interests in the Strategy. The management fees, incentive fees and allocation and other expenses of the Strategy will reduce trading profits, if any, or increase losses.
No representation or warranty is made with respect to the correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. No guarantee is made that such information is accurate, complete or timely and no warranty is given regarding results obtained from its use. The issuer of this material and its related entities and affiliates will not be responsible or liable for any losses, whether direct, indirect or consequential, including loss of profits, damages, costs, claims or expenses, relating to or arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material including trading losses, loss of opportunity or incidental or punitive damages.
This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part in any circumstances. , Further information regarding any benchmark referred to herein can be found at www.magellaninvestmentpartners.com/funds/benchmark-information/. Any third-party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. (080825-#i1)
United Kingdom: This material has been prepared by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners and is distributed in the United Kingdom by Magellan Investment Partners (UK) Limited (FRN: 1037936), an appointed representative of Sentinel Regulatory Services Ltd (FRN: 1007093) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity under the provisions of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). This material does not form part of any offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for, or any solicitation of any such offer to purchase, sell or subscribe for, any shares, units or other type of investment product or service. This material or any part of it, or the fact of its distribution, is for background purposes only. This material has not been approved by a person authorised under the FSMA and its distribution in the United Kingdom and is only being made to persons in circumstances that will not constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of section 21 of the FSMA as a result of an exemption contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO) as set out below. This material is exempt from the restrictions in the FSMA as it is to be strictly communicated only to ‘investment professionals’ as defined in Article 19(5) of the FPO.
United States: This material has been prepared by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners (‘Magellan’) which is a registered investment adviser. The investment strategies described herein are distributed in the United States by Frontier Partners, Inc. (‘Frontier’), a U.S.-registered investment adviser. For the purposes of the US Securities Act 1933, Magellan and Frontier are affiliated entities. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, financial instrument or product or to provide financial services. It is not the intention of Magellan to create legal relations on the basis of information provided herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Where performance figures are shown net of fees charged to clients, the performance has been reduced by the amount of the highest fee charged to any client employing that particular strategy during the period under consideration. Actual fees may vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and portfolio size. Fees are available upon request and also may be found in Part II of Magellan’s Form ADV.
Canada: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners (‘Magellan’). Magellan is not registered in any province in Canada. The head office of Magellan is in Sydney, Australia and all or substantially all of its assets are situated outside of Canada. Due to the foregoing, there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against Magellan.
South Africa: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners, who in accordance with FAIS Notice 55 of 2023 issued by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, Magellan Investment Partners is exempted from section 7(1) of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (Act No. 37 of 2002). This material is not an offer in terms of Chapter 4 of the Companies Act, 2008.
UAE: This material has been produced by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners. This material is not for distribution to any other person. This material, and the information contained herein, does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute, a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (‘UAE’) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Any offer of securities or financial services is made only to a limited number of exempt Professional Investors in the UAE who fall under one of the following categories: federal or local governments, government institutions and agencies, or companies wholly owned by any of them. No securities or services have been approved by or licensed or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the Securities and Commodities Authority, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the UAE (the ‘Authorities’). The Authorities assume no liability for any investment that the named addressee makes as a Professional Investor. This material is for the use of the named addressee only and should not be given or shown to any other person (other than employees, agents or consultants in connection with the addressee’s consideration thereof). Other jurisdictions: This material is provided to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946 AFSL 304 301) doing business as Magellan Investment Partners.
No distribution of this material will be made in any jurisdiction where such distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. This material does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such an offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. (080825-#W17)